Way Too Early '18-'19 NBA Awards Predictions

Jack Frantz
Nov 18, 2018
5 min read

Well here we are - a little more than 15 games into this young '18-'19 NBA season and we have already got a little taste of what's to come this year in professional basketball. Here on Varsity Report I am bringing you "Way Too Early" predictions for end-of-season awards in every category. Part speculation, but also part consideration of everything I've seen so far that lay a framework for how these awards may shape-up at the end of the season. So without further ado, I present to you my "Way Too Early '18-'19 NBA Awards Predictions".

Most Valuable Player: Lebron James

Predicting MVP is no easy task, and this season definitely presents its challenges. Before I break-down my selection of the kid from Akron, I'll start by first explaining the complexity that comes with naming an MVP every year now.

Everyone knows that Lebron James is the best basketball player in the world. And while this doesn't mean however that he wins MVP every year that he's in the league, because he hasn't since '12-'13, the fact that he is the undisputed top player for as long as he's playing automatically guarantees him as a contender each season, regardless of his team or current climate of the league. With that being said, the Most Valuable Player Award has evolved in recent years, and albeit in ways that I personally don't agree with, to more of a "Best Player on a Top-5 Team, with a hint of freshness" award.

While BPOAT5TWAHOF may not necessarily roll of the tongue, this is still essentially what the award has become. And this is primarily the reason we haven't seen a Lebron James MVP every year. Russell Westbrook has been the only real exception to this new narrative recently, and if I'm being honest, even as an OKC native I didn't think Russ would win MVP in 2017. It was OKC's first season in the post-Durant saga and of course Westbrook became a triple-double monster, not only breaking records, but averaging them. The only problem with this was that even though the Thunder were a playoff team still, they were anything but a Top-5 team. And this was the entire reason there was any kind of doubt about whether he would get MVP or not - it might not fit the narrative.

But at the end of the day, averaging a triple-double on the season ended up landing Westbrook his first MVP - because not giving it to him would have been a disgrace to basketball, and the award. Ironically, however, the next year Westbrook would go on to average a triple-double yet again, but because it wasn't as "fresh" as the year before, and the Thunder were still outside the Top-5 looking in, MVP was awarded to James Harden - who had a terrific statistical year, on the team with the best regular-season record. This MVP fits the narrative.

Now that we understand the culture of the MVP award, let's dive into my process of eliminating other contenders that led to my prediction, Lebron James.

Surely there's a large amount of real contenders for the award this year, and if I'm being real, even predicting what teams will finish Top-5 is somewhat in the air. Giannis Antetokounmpo is an absolute animal. And while the Bucks seem to be on pace to perform even better than last year, they still exist in a weak Eastern Conference. So unless the Bucks claim their spot as the #1 seed in the East early, and follow though with it, I have a hard time seeing Giannis winning rather than just being a serious contender. Same goes for Kawhi and the Raptors in the East. Anthony Davis however is on the opposite side in an even more stacked Western Conference, where just securing a playoff spot for the Pelicans will have its challenges. Kevin Durant and Steph Curry will surely split votes again, and even if James Harden puts up similar numbers to last year I wouldn't bet on him winning again. This process of elimination is what brings me to Lebron.

While I still believe Giannis has a great shot, for him it's contingent on the Bucks dominating in the East. And with the recent Jimmy Butler trade - Toronto, Boston, and Philly seem to be shaping up to be worthy challengers alongside the Bucks for the #1 seed. Don't get me wrong, Lebron's Lakers will not be a Top-5 team anytime soon, but the dynamic for him is different this year in the fact that if the Lakers can manage a playoff spot in the loaded Western Conference - it will be obvious the shift in power a single player like Lebron brings. (Not to mention how noticeably terrible the Cavaliers have been post-Lebron so far, even considering their injuries.) Landing a playoff spot would end up being a huge improvement for the Lakers from last year, and as LA gets more time to build chemistry, this begins to look more like a true possibility. Time to give the king his 5th MVP.

Rookie of the Year:

Luka Doncic

Many people expected Luka Doncic to impress this season, but so far he's done even more than just impress. Not only has he displayed his incredible skill-set and basketball IQ, but he's turning out to be the complete forefront of the Dallas Mavericks team. Deandre Ayton has played well, and there's still much of the season left to still be played, but I give this one overwhelmingly to Doncic. He's been a huge pickup for the Mavs so far.

Sixth-Man of the Year:

Dennis Schroder

This is another prediction that I'd be willing to put money on. Before the season began, my 3 picks for potential sixth-men were Schroder, J.J. Reddick, and Carmelo Anthony. Melo will no longer be with the Rockets after a shockingly short stint with the team, and Reddick seems to now be back in the starting lineup after the Sixers traded away two starters for Jimmy Butler. All of this alone paves the way for Schroder to have a great shot at sixth-man of the year, and in Westbrook's absence he's already proven that he has the skills of not only a starting point-guard, but a great one. After a rocky start to to season, the Thunder are now looking like one of the fastest and scrappiest teams in the league. Schroder has been a huge part of this team so far, but once Westbrook is 100% healthy, we will of course see Schroder leading the 2nd unit. Definitely their most promising sixth-man since Reggie Jackson.

Defensive Player of the Year:

Anthony Davis

It's no secret that the brow is of MVP caliber, but assuming he misses out on that I expect him to at least win this. Defensive Player of the Year typically favors shot-blockers, and I expect them to finally give AD the nod of this - giving him his first DPOY award.

Written by Jack Frantz